My Thursday 24th 2009 news headlines had a minor link to a story in the Arizona Daily Star describing two US cases of human infection with the swine influenza virus. Apparently the people had not been in contact with pigs, and CDC was investigating. Next day the top headline broadcast that a potential swine flu pandemic was underway in Mexico and the virus was passing person-to-person. Over the next two days, the virus spread to several regions of the US, Canada, and Europe. The US announced a Health Emergency on Sunday 27th April 2009, and freed up 25% of the antiviral stockpile. In less than a week a potential flu pandemic had materialized, stockpiles were being released and the first sequences of the virus were being published. Technology has come a long way since the 1968-69 ‘Hong Kong Flu’ pandemic—and the virus keeps pace thanks to daily global travel.
On April 29th 2009 the World Health Organization (WHO) elevated the global pandemic alert level to Phase 5, indicating sustained human-to-human transmission of a novel influenza strain (H1N1) of animal origin in one WHO region of the world, and exported cases detected in other regions. There has been no recommendation by the WHO or CDC for manufacturers to begin production of a pandemic vaccine, however if and when this comes it will put the biopharmaceutical and vaccine industries to the test. Can they quickly produce large quantities of vaccine, a vaccine being the most sure-fired way of managing a pandemic? Anti-virals (Tamiflu™ and Relenza™) are effective treatments if administered within 48 hours of the first signs of infection, but only a vaccine will prevent infection.
Scientists are working on developing a reassortant of the H1N1 virus that can be grown up in eggs and become the seed for the vaccine. Only time will tell as to how many egg produced doses can be made and how quickly, but all of the big players will be in there (Novartis, GSK, sanofi pasteur).
There are also cell-culture based flu vaccines. A lot of government money has gone into developing this type of manufacturing technology but it has not come fully on line in time for H1N1 and will probably only make a small contribution to the total number of doses available. And then there are the novel technologies that are still in development (e.g. Protein Sciences Corp’s BEVS technology) that will probably not play a meaningful role this time around. Big Pharma will do the heavy lifting if and when the call is made.
Tags: Add new tag, flu, H1N1, swine flu
